Big winter storm...

Here we go. It has been delayed, but the first big storm is looking more menacing with each passing day. We meteorologists make forecasts based upon computer simulations and and our own experience in watching how storms evolve over time. We sometimes get conflicting computer guidance from day to day and even hour to hour, so our confidence in predicting storms can be high or we can have our doubts a few days in advance.

In this case the computers have been fairly consistent in the big details such as the track and the strength of the low pressure area, so we are pretty confident that Saturday and Saturday night are going to be a mess with heavy snow and a possibility of freezing rain. That means travel conditions will be hazardous. We are still uncertain about the smaller scale details so the amounts of snow are still in question. Plus enough warm air will move northward and the snow could turn into freezing rain or rain. In any case the roads are likely to be messy. Keep in touch with the latest forecasts as we get closer to the weekend.

Dan Breeden
News 19 Chief Meteorologist