Randy's Weather Journal

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Thursday Night Thunderstorms

A few thunderstorms have been dropping a bit of small hail in southeast Minnesota, but so far everything has been your run-of-the-mill spring thunderstorm and has stayed below severe levels.  Expect occasional heavy rain, maybe some small hail, and gusty winds with thunderstorms through tonight and Friday.

On the edge of severe

As expected, we still haven't picked up any rainfall around southern Minnesota or northern Iowa quite yet, but conditions are beginning to turn more optimal for heavy rain and thunderstorms beginning tonight. SPC has already issued a tornado watch for portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota for the rest of today, and thunderstorms will begin to increase across the region into this evening.

The heavy rain threat for the next 24 hours doesn't appear to be enough to prompt any flood watches in our area, but that could change depending on how the overall storm system evolves. The way I'm seeing this storm right now, the best flow of moisture will begin to shift to our east Friday afternoon. This isn't to say that we won't get heavy rain, but we should be left out of the "heaviest" rainfall by the end of tomorrow. You can click on the image on the right to see a model estimation of rainfall amounts expected. Computer models are projecting amounts from 1.5" to nearly 2" by Saturday morning throughout southern Minnesota and north Iowa, with Minnesota receiving the higher totals. The image on the left is the region where the most severe weather is expected to occur.

Either way you cut it, we're looking at yet another wet finish to our week. Rain will linger into Saturday morning, and temperatures to kick off the weekend will remain below average. There will be milder days throughout the coming 7 days, and another round of thunderstorms is probable from Tuesday, May 6th into Wednesday, May 7th.

Tuesday School Visit

I ventured to Pine Island Elementary Tuesday to visit Mrs. Erickson and Mrs. Fernholz's 2nd grade students.  We had a wonderful time chatting about weather, I showed pictures of supercells, tornadoes, and lightning.  The kids had a ton of great questions and even better stories to tell about their run-ins with severe weather.

In like a lamb, out like a lion

I suppose it could be argued that folklore held to reality this time around.  March came in like a lamb with seasonably cold temperatures and sunshine, and is going out like a lion...a really damp, slushy, dare I say wimpy yet soaking wet lion.  Here's a little diddy from the Farmer's Almanac on this bit of March folklore.

Snow will be coming to an end tonight with a few locations receiving an additional inch of accumulation.  Tuesday is going to be chilly for early April, but sunshine will return by late Tuesday afternoon.  Upper 40s to low 50s can be expected later this week.  We have yet to hit a high of 50 in Rochester, and this Friday is looking to be the day.  Drive safely out there tonight as the slush and puddles from today freeze overnight.

Midwest Flooding Concerns

From NOAA

Current Major Flooding in U.S. a Sign of Things to Come

“We expect rains and melting snow to bring more flooding this spring,” said Vickie Nadolski, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Americans should be on high alert to flood conditions in your communities. Arm yourselves with information about how to stay safe during a flood and do not attempt to drive on flooded roadways – remember to always turn around, don’t drown.”

Nadolski called on local emergency management officials to continue preparations for a wet spring and focus on public education to ensure heightened awareness of the potential for dangerous local conditions.

Click here to read the entire article

Midwest Snowfall

Despite having over an inch of snow on the ground every day this winter, the grand total for Rochester's snowfall so far this season is 42.0", which is 4.3" below average.  Minneapolis is also running below normal with a total of 37.8" which is 12.9" below average as of the end of Sunday, March 23rd.

In lieu of our meager totals in Rochester and Minneapolis, just a short drive away La Crosse has received 67" of snow this season, which is 26.1" above average.  Even more extreme, Madison, Wisconsin just surpassed 100" Sunday evening when they received a half inch of snow.  Their total on the season is 100.4", which is a whopping 44.9" of snow above their average.

Strong wind and mild temperatures Monday night through Tuesday morning will work to melt the snow we received this past Friday, and highs will be back in the mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Friday's Snowfall

Snow hasn't been terribly impressive in Rochester so far, and likely will remain light into the afternoon.  Snow is still falling moderately to heavily close to home, and totals should be coming in on the low end of the 4-8" forecast.

I'm disappointed in the lack of thundersnow here, but it's good not to have to shovel a hefty load of March snow.  Bring on spring.

Click here for updated snowfall totals through today..

 

Have a safe and happy Easter weekend!  Roads should be in decent shape this afternoon as the snow is already tapering off late this morning.  Conditions will be a bit worse in southwest Wisconsin where heavier snow continues as of now (midday Friday).

Tonight-Friday Snowfall: Update #1

I've just finished digging through all the data and have a fair amount of confidence in the going forecast.  There's always doubt...especially after the kind of winter events we've had over the last couple months that look great on paper, but don't deliver in the end.  This storm looks to be more promising, but still carries some issues.

A line of snow is already developing from South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota.  This will begin to overspread southeast Minnesota by the late evening, with light rain and a little snow at first.  Rain will quickly change to snow (within an hour or two) around Midnight and pick up in intensity around 3am.  Our heaviest snow will fall between 3am and Noon Friday, focused on the morning commute.  By 7am Friday, I'm anticipating 2-4" of wet, sloppy snow on the ground with plenty of slush on the roadways (road temperatures are still decently warm from our sunny Thursday and will cause snow to melt initially).  Snow will continue, heavy at times during the morning hours, and will taper to an end by the mid-afternoon Friday.

What will be interesting to watch within the band of snow that forms late tonight is how intense it may become.  By Friday morning, the intensity should be enough to cause what is called 'slantwise convection'.  This, in turn, is something that makes for thundersnow.  We get snow events like this more often in the early and late parts of winter where lightning and thunder can actually accompany heavy snow.  When you hear thunder, odds are there is snow falling heavily--typically to the tune of 2" or more per hour.

Also, the snow that develops with this system will occur in a rather narrow band; one that will make for a very quick drop-off in amounts from north to south.  In a 50 mile or less area we will see totals varying from zero to nearly 8".

Grand totals will be in the 4-8" range, with a few locations potentially receiving up to 10" of snow.

Revisions to snowfall totals and expectations will be posted as we go into tonight and more data comes down the wire.

Happy First Day of Spring: Have some snow!

The vernal equinox occurred this morning at 12:48am, CDT.  So, however you cut it, it's springtime.  Meteorological spring started on March 1st as it always does, and astronomical spring began this morning.

Despite this astronomical phenomenon telling us that winter is over, a winter storm will begin to affect us tonight.  Looking at the latest data this morning, heavy snow potential is looking really good for southeast Minnesota.  At this point, 6"+ amounts are looking good for us, and those planning on doing some Easter travel Friday will have a rough go of it close to home.

I'll have more in-depth information on this storm after I get my forecast put together early this afternoon.

For now (10:20am Thursday, March 20th), the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for tonight through Friday.  This will likely be upgraded to a warning this afternoon.

Spring: Viewer Mail

Names have been withheld to protect the innocent

A couple of things have always bothered me about the "official" start of a season.

1. I can't find any "official" organization that sets the definition of the seasons. It there some formal meterological group that sets this definition?
2. Also, it seems to me that declaring the seasons based on astronomical events doesn't really line up with the temperatures. Assuming that winter is the coldest time of the year and summer the hottest, wouldn't December 1 - February 28/29 and June 1 - August 31 be a better fit for winter and summer respectively? That would leave March, April, and May as Spring and September, October, and November as fall.

Yours in nitpickiness,
Viewer

My response:

Hi Viewer,

We meteorologists are very level-headed and so full of common sense that we recognize December 1-February 28/29 as winter, and March 1st through May 31st as Spring. 3 month increments makes keeping tabs on seasons much easier than breaking up seasons around the middle of the month.

The Gregorian Calendar dictates that spring begin on the vernal equinox as opposed to any other date of choice that would have to be decided by a system of government. Hence, the U.S. addresses the vernal equinox as the beginning of spring.

I know…it’s a bunch of hooey.

Tracking Runoff

The National Weather Service has a feature known as AHPS, or Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service available through their local office websites.   A detailed map offers links to the latest information from gauging stations setup on streams and rivers throughout the region. 

For those concerned about flood potential or how high rivers and streams are becoming due to runoff or heavy rain, these sites offer some great info.

Minor flooding is expected to continue into this weekend in portions of north Iowa due to today's runoff.  For the very latest warnings at your fingertips, download Desktop Alert.

March Snowfall in Rochester

Snowfall so far this month is officially at a total of 3.0", but as is obvious, we continue to lose more snow than we've received.

March is notably one of the snowiest months in Rochester, but is not THE snowiest.  December and January average more snow than March, but March averages more snow than February and December.  4 of the top 10 biggest one-day snowfall events have been in March, including the massive 19.8" record event that was set on March 18th, 2005.  The snowiest March was in 1951 when 35.1" of snow fell, second only to December 2000 for the snowiest month on record.

In case you were wondering, the average March snowfall is 9" in Rochester, and March is the 2nd windiest month with an average wind speed of 13.2mph.  April is the windiest month of the year...

3/11/08 Update

You can see it, smell it, feel it...yes, that's the first thaw of spring out there today, and it's been a good one.  Temperatures will slowly dip to the mid 20s overnight and, despite cloudy skies, will still climb to the low 40s Wednesday afternoon.  Highs over the next 7 days are set to rise above freezing, and lows every night will dip below the freezing mark, which is always good for putting the brakes on the snowmelt.

Even with a slow snowmelt, there are still potential flood problems in some watersheds due to the high amount of liquid that's been packed away all winter in the form of snow.  The greatest threat for any flooding this week into the weekend looks to be in parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin where there was a lot more snow over the course of this winter.

Spring Ahead! 3/7 Update

Yes, we are going to come within a couple degrees of a record low Saturday morning, and yes, we've been talking a lot about that lately.  The record low for Saturday is -8 degrees and my forecast low is -7 degrees.  It's certainly not out of the question that we could be a little colder than -8 tomorrow morning.

Light snow is likely Saturday evening, and by the time you step outdoors Sunday morning there may be around an inch of snow on the ground.  Flurries will likely linger through Sunday.

Beyond the possibility of record cold Saturday morning, this weekend will be turning a bit milder for us, with the warmer day being Sunday.  Highs however will still remain below normal both Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures will rebound above the freezing mark Monday afternoon and we can expect temperatures to be at or above normal (~35) from Monday through Thursday.

Don't forget to set your clocks ahead an hour Saturday night before you go to sleep.  We'll lose an hour of sleep (moot point if you have kids that wake you up at night) but our sunsets will be past 7pm starting Sunday evening.

Enjoy your weekend!

3/5/08 Update

Local weather

A weak storm system delivered between 0.5-1.5" of snow across the area this morning, and is moving off to the east as colder air comes in from the northwest. Arctic air is lurking just to our north and will make for a few cold days with the possibility of record low temperatures by the end of this week into our weekend.

Lows tonight with decreasing clouds will drop to about 6° with a northwesterly breeze. Temperatures will make it to the teens Thursday ahead of the next reinforcement of colder air--still about 15° below the seasonal average. Skies will be partly cloudy Thursday and mostly sunny Friday, but Friday will be the coldest of the next 7 days with temperatures struggling out of the single digits to about 11° by Friday afternoon. Lows Saturday morning will flirt with the old record low of -8° set back in 1943.

This weekend will remain colder than the norm with highs in the 20s Saturday and a chance for light snow over the course of Saturday. We'll return to the 30s Sunday under partly cloudy skies, and highs will near 40° by Tuesday before another storm system brings a shot of rain, snow, and cooler air Wednesday.

Highlights

...of our winter

With a tip of the hat to the NWS office in La Crosse.

During the 2007-08 Meteorological Winter (December 1 through February 29), Rochester International Airport had at least an inch of snow on the ground on every day (91 days).  This is only the tenth time that this has occurred since records began during the winter of 1937-38.  The last time that this occurred was during the winter of 1985-86.  The remaining eight winters that had a similar occurrence was the 1940-41, 1950-51, 1952-53, 1954-55, 1971-72, 1978-79, 1981-82, and 1983-84.  During a typical meteorological winter, there are usually only 66 days in which you have measurable snow on the ground.

...of our week ahead

Snow is likely Wednesday, but amounts will be very light across southern Minnesota and north Iowa, to the tune of about an inch, give or take a little.  Do expect some slick roadways, but don't expect to get a day out of school.

Cold, arctic air will be plunging into the upper Midwest later this week, keeping our highs in the teens Thursday and just barely out of the single digits Friday.  We'll be awfully close to setting a record for the coldest high temperature Friday, and a record low Saturday morning.

2/28/08 Update

Snow has ended, but freezing drizzle has settled into the region tonight.  The drizzle should end by Friday morning, but do expect some icy roadways late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Today's snowfall wasn't terribly impressive, but is typical of the kind of snow we've received all winter...just a little here and there has amounted to a seasonably snowy winter.

Here are some totals from this afternoon/evening's snowfall as reported by the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
942 PM CST THU FEB 28 2008

...RECENT REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS...

LOCATION       SNOWFALL   

NORTHEAST IOWA

...ALLAMAKEE COUNTY...
WAUKON 8NW                    1.0         

...CHICKASAW COUNTY...
N. WASHINGTON                 0.7         

...HOWARD COUNTY...
MCINTIRE 3E                   1.3         

...MITCHELL COUNTY...
ST ANSGAR                     2.2         

...WINNESHIEK COUNTY...
FORT ATKINSON                 1.5         

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

...DODGE COUNTY...
DODGE CENTER                  1.5         
KASSON                        1.5         

...FILLMORE COUNTY...
SPRING VALLEY                 2.3         
PETERSON 1S                   0.5         

...MOWER COUNTY...
AUSTIN KAAL TV                1.5         

...OLMSTED COUNTY...
BYRON                         2.0         
STEWARTVILLE                  1.9         
ROCHESTER KTTC TV             1.3         
ROCHESTER AIRPORT             0.7         

...WABASHA COUNTY...
READS LANDING 1W              1.0         

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN

...LA CROSSE COUNTY...
LA CROSSE NWS                 1.5         

...VERNON COUNTY...
VALLEY 1NW                    0.8       

OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE.  NOT ALL DATA LISTED IS CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.

2/27/08 Update

Yes, there's snow in the forecast, but no, it won't amount to much.  There's an Albert Clipper coming our way for Thursday, and it will bring an increase in clouds beginning tonight and light snow beginning late Thursday afternoon.  Amounts will be very light, ranging from a trace to 1" for much of our area and possibly up to 3" in parts of Wisconsin. 

At least for the next 7 days, temperatures will be a lot closer to normal than they've been for the bulk of February, with highs in the 30s from Friday through the weekend.  Rain and snow is possible from Sunday into Monday, but my confidence in that storm striking our area is low at this time.

Snow Cover in January 2008

According to the National Climatic Data Center, snow cover across the northern hemisphere in January of 2008 is the greatest on record (1967-2008 recording period).

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent

The January 2008 snow cover extent was the largest extent over the 42-year historical record, surpassing the previous record set in 1985. The mean Northern Hemisphere January snow cover extent for the 1967-2008 period of record is 47.0 million square kilometers.

Another Round of Snow

There is yet another winter storm system on our doorstep, and yet another storm that will deliver the bulk of its goods south of Rochester.  These are the storms that send forecasters into an agitated mood, and puzzle those who just want to know "if it's going to snow or not".

What to expect:
Yes, there will be snow, although at this time (Sunday morning) amounts look to be in the <2" realm (with a focus on the "less than") for the 2nd tier of counties north of the IA/MN border (Hwy 14 corridor, including Rochester, Dodge Center, Owatonna, Winona) plus Houston county in far SE MN.  The best timeframe for snow is from Noon Monday until about 3am Tuesday.  For the far southern tier of MN counties (excluding Houston county), it looks like 2-4" of snow by Tuesday morning.  Portions of Iowa, especially Winnebago, Worth, Howard, and Mitchell counties look to be under the greatest potential for good, somewhat heavier snow.  I expect around 4-6" there with a few totals coming in just a bit higher by Tuesday morning.

From a meteorological perspective, it can be excruciating and very fun to watch snow events unfold.  This storm isn't a very big event, but its snow will be of the "wet and heavy" variety, making shoveling more of a task.

Don't miss Steph's forecast tonight at 5 & 10 on the KTTC NewsCenter for the latest updates on Monday's snow.

Enjoy our mild weather today!

2/21/08 Update: Tranquil Weather

Local weather

A slow warmup will be underway over the next few days as highs return to normal and even slightly above by the beginning of next week. Tranquil weather continues tonight into our weekend, but there is yet another winter storm in the forecast. 

Lows tonight will be colder than normal, around 1 by Friday morning.  With mostly sunny skies and a light wind Friday, highs return to the low 20s.  Temperatures, along with mostly sunny skies again, will get back to the seasonal norm of the upper 20s Saturday.  Even though clouds will increase a bit Sunday, highs will reach the low 30s. 

Another winter storm will spin into the upper Midwest Monday making for a good potential of accumulating snow.  We'll be keeping a close eye on this storm system through the weekend.  Snow should be coming to an end Tuesday morning and highs wil drop back below normal from Tuesday through Thursday.

In weather news

According to a recent NOAA study, Increased hurricane losses as of late are due to an increased population, wealth, and infrastructure along the coast and not from stronger storms.

A team of scientists have found that the economic damages from hurricanes have increased in the U.S. over time due to greater population, infrastructure, and wealth on the U.S. coastlines, and not to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes. “We found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,” said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.”

In Weather News

Because I felt this deserved its own post today...the focus is on the inter-mountain West.

-In Vail, Colorado, where students really do have to walk uphill to school, both ways, in 10 foot snowdrifts, got their first snow day since 1982.  It's an impressive winter when Vail gets to call a snow day.

-Record Snowpack Causing Flood Worries

-Hefty snowpacks raise hopes, fears

-Current Snow-Water Equivalents are at record high levels in many mountainous regions

But!

Scientists say The Decline in Snowpack is Blamed on Global Warming

Hey...I just post the stuff.  :)

2/19/08 Update: Cold, Round 2

Another cold, arctic front is chugging across the Midwest right now, and will drop temperatures even farther tonight and Wednesday.  Ahead of this next round of cold air, a weak storm system--a "clipper"--has brought about some light snow across the area, although amounts will remain less than a half inch.  Although amounts will be light, winds will cause lowered visibilities due to blowing and drifting of fresh snow.  Just like last night, there will be plenty of icy patches across southern Minnesota and north Iowa, so take caution as you travel across the region tonight and Wednesday morning.  Because of the dangerous travel conditions, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from 6pm tonight until Noon Tuesday.

This isn't your garden variety cold front moving into the area.  Wind chills will be at least as cold as -35 tonight into Wednesday morning--cold and blustery enough to cause frostbite in 10 minutes or less.  Prevent frostbite by covering all exposed skin, so be sure the kiddos are tightly wrapped at the bus stop tomorrow morning.  Temperatures will remain below zero Wednesday and wind chills will down to -30 through much of the day. 

A little warmup is in store for the end of the week with highs rebounding to the 20s Friday and Saturday, and into the low 30s Sunday and Monday.  The next storm system that appears to have any "muscle" to it should arrive Monday bringing the potential for rain and/or snow.

Stay safe and stay warm!

Rough Travel Conditions Tonight

Due to blowing snow throughout today and the subsequent icing, lowered visibilities, and slippery roads, travel has been reportedly difficult throughout our region tonight.

Conditions are especially difficult in Iowa tonight, and the Iowa Department of Transportation is advising travelers to stay put tonight due to dangerous road conditions.  Visit their website for more information on specific road condition reports.

MN/DOT has reported dangerous travel conditions from Stewartville to Austin on I-90.  Click here to visit their site for more info.

2/18/08 Update

Winter's definitely not showing any signs of loosening its grip as highs today have struggled to reach any higher than about 5 with wind chills in the teens below zero.  In case you can't soak in enough of this cold air, another reinforcing wave of arctic air will arrive later in the day Tuesday.

Lows tonight will drop to about -7 with wind chills as cold as -25 to -30 degrees and partly cloudy skies.  Clouds will increase Tuesday, and light snow with minor accumulations will develop during the afternoon to early evening Tuesday.  The next round of cold air that will arrive Tuesday evening will keep our highs in the single digits Wednesday with sunshine and light winds.

This weekend does promise to be milder with highs back into the mid to upper 20s Friday and Saturday, and low 30s by Sunday.  With the warmer air and another storm system around the beginning of next week, there is a chance of a rain and snow mix on Monday.

Blizzard Warning

I'd really like to wax nostalgic about today's snow, and whip up a story about how it's "about time" we saw a good snow here, but enough is enough!  Okay, that's a bit dramatic too, but here we have another high impact winter storm on our doorstep, and it will last through today.

Snow totals won't be terribly impressive in Rochester, Austin, and Albert Lea, but the few inches we do receive will combine with strong winds this afternoon to make travel conditions difficult through today.  While we're looking at a garden-variety winter event here in Rochester, another blizzard will be underway from Houston county in southeast Minnesota through much of northeast Iowa where amounts of snow will be over 6", even up to 12" for some, and strong winds this afternoon and evening will make travel nearly impossible.

Go to the KTTC Weather Page for the latest radar imagery to see where it's snowing.  Get the latest watches/warnings/advisories by downloading Desktop Alert.  You can also check the National Weather Service Radar picture and their main page for details on warnings.

2/16/08 Update

Another winter storm is bearing down on the region, and will deliver its strongest blow to areas just south and east of Rochester.  For the latest warnings and advisories, download Desktop Alert!

Central and southern Wisconsin will get the worst of this coming storm as freezing rain and sleet will turn to heavy snow Sunday morning.  Rochester will pick up 1-2" of snow on the backside of this storm, and areas west of Rochester will receive little more than a trace of snow along with strong, gusty, and colder winds by Sunday afternoon.  Where we do receive snow Sunday, strong winds will do a fine job of whipping it around and lowering visibilities. 

If you are traveling from Rochester to the south and east Sunday, be wary of worsening conditions throughout the day.

Valentine's Day Update

Local weather

Arctic air is settling over the upper Midwest and in turn our Friday morning's temperatures will be around 8 below zero.  We will have a fair amount of sunshine Friday, and the coldest air will move off to the east as warmer air is drawn into the region Saturday. 

Highs Saturday will climb to about 30 by the afternoon with partly cloudy skies and a southerly wind.  This warmer air is moving in ahead of another, less intense cold front that will move through Sunday morning.  A few snow showers are possible Sunday into Monday as colder air arrives, and temperatures will drop back to the teens Sunday afternoon and that's where highs will stay Monday.

No impressive storm systems will move through our neck of the woods for the next 7 days, but another strong storm system will bring heavy snow to northern Missouri, southern and eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin from Saturday night through Sunday.  Madison, WI has already set their all-time record for snowfall, and it looks like they'll get at least another 4-5" out of Sunday's round of snowfall.

In weather news

La Nina seen lasting through mid-2008
Fog causes 50-vehicle pileup in California
Tornadoes reported in Florida, Louisiana

Bust in Rochester

Only about 1" for a grand total here, and the fizzle factor was ginormous around the Twin Cities.

However, outside the universe of Rochester, it continues to snow, heavily at times, just miles to our south as a very narrow band of moderate to heavy snow continues to linger late this morning into the afternoon.

Here are some totals from Fillmore and Houston counties as of 11am Thursday.

Fillmore County

FOUNTAIN 4.5
HIGHLAND 4.2
SPRING VALLEY 3SW 3.2
PRESTON 2.0

...HOUSTON COUNTY...
SPRING GROVE 4.0
LA CRESCENT 3W 3.8
CALEDONIA 6S 3.4
LA CRESCENT 1N 2.5

 

A Snow Advisory remains in effect for Mower, Fillmore, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshiek, and Allamakee counties where totals will reach 3-6", and a Heavy Snow Warning has been issued for Houston county eastward into Wisconsin where totals just south of Caledonia will reach 5-8".

By the way...Yes, I delete comments if they are inappropriate, and yes, I do get paid for this.  :)

Late Evening Update

The Snow Advisory issued by the National Weather Service will continue from tonight until 6pm Thursday evening.  Amounts tonight will be scant, with accumulations around 1" by 6am Thursday morning.  However, during the early to mid-morning hours, a line of snow should move through southern Minnesota producing an additional 2-4" of snow.  This snow will be following at a peak travel time, so travel with caution if you'll be out in the masses Thursday morning.  Snow will begin to wrap up around Noon and will be chased to the east by a strong northwesterly wind.  The snow from the morning will be blown around, occasionally lowering visibilities across the wide open spaces of southeast Minnesota.

Clearly this isn't expected to be a great snow producing storm system, but it should successfully mess up traffic Thursday.  Stay safe and stay warm!

2/13/08 Update

All eyes are on the sky for snow tonight and Thursday morning.  For some odd reason, I've had more inquiries of heavy snow from teachers than I have from students, so I'm a bit concerned about the ramifications of too little snow Thursday.

Looking at the latest data this afternoon, snow still looks on track for primarily southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and some of north-central Iowa from Midnight tonight through Thursday morning.  Amounts tonight will range from 1-3" with extreme southern Minnesota on the low end, and northern portions of our area (Faribault, MN to Wabasha, MN) receiving around 3" overnight.  As a follow-up wave of snow affects us Thursday morning between 6am and Noon, another 3" is possible.  This will make for event totals of 3-6" across southeast Minnesota.  Higher totals, around 8" and possibly even slightly higher, are possible from Eau Claire, WI to Wausau, WI.

All-time record snowfall in Madison, WI

As of 4pm today, Madison has received 80.1" of snow.  This is more snow than any other winter season on record!

For the snow season (measured from July through June so as not to miss any outlandish events), Rochester has received 31.6" of snow, and that is 3.6" below the pace for February 12th.  More snow is on the way however, and I'll have more on that right here later tonight.

Here's the story from the Milwaukee NWS

New Record Low in International Falls!

A quick check of temperatures in northern Minnesota showed International Falls dropping to -38 degrees at 6:55 this morning.  According to the climate report out of Duluth's NWS office for International Falls, their record low for February 11th is -37 set back in 1981 and 1967.

Congratulations, International Falls!  You definitely deserve the now-trademarked title Icebox of the Nation.

2/10/08 Update

Local weather

The Polar Plunge went on without a hitch Saturday despite the howling winds and frigid wind chills.  That takes some serious gumption, and my hat's off to all who braved the elements Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures, as you've likely felt, are well below the average for today and will remain sub-zero for the rest of tonight.  Snow is likely Monday to the tune of 1-3" by Monday night.  Highs Monday will remain in the single digits and will eventually rebound to normal by Wednesday.

Snow is likely again Thursday with accumulations expected, but it's still too far out to pin down amounts.

In weather news

Wintry weather meets Maine democratic caucus-goers

Wave of support building for new coastal weather radar

It's not quite a 'blizzard'

...but wind, blowing and drifting snow, and dangerously cold wind chills will continue to impact our region through the rest of tonight and Sunday morning.  Winds have picked up this afternoon behind an arctic cold front and will remain in the 30-40mph range tonight bringing wind chills down to 35 to 45 degrees below zero.  In wide open, rural areas, visibilities will occasionally drop to near zero, but overall will begin to improve during the evening hours and overnight.  Travel will still remain difficult and you should expect icy roadways through tonight.

The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY through this evening, and a WIND CHILL WARNING from Midnight until Noon Sunday.

Stay safe and stay warm!

Look for Ted Schmidt to be delivering updates on this wintry weather through the evening.

2/7/08 Update

Local weather

Light, ornamental snow has been falling today, and accumulations have only occurred on the coldest surfaces (ice, car roofs, etc.) and with that, have only been a trace.  Flurries will continue through tonight, followed by a small, weak area of low pressure that will produce just enough snow to deliver around 1" of accumulation Friday. 

More significant changes are coming our way Saturday as a strong arctic cold front will push across the upper Midwest, dropping temperatures abruptly from the upper teens Saturday morning to below zero by the middle of the day.  Saturday's cold front will be very similar to the storm system that whipped across the area on January 29th, but with less snow.  There will be blowing and drifting snow resulting in lowered visibilities from the mid-morning through the evening hours. 

Keep in mind that when you step outdoors Saturday morning it will be your typical February day, and relatively mild for a winter morning.  By the mid to late morning, as the cold front passses through, winds will pick up to 30-40mph with higher gusts, temperatures will drop quickly, and snow will begin to fall making for dangerous travel conditions.  Snow totals won't be an issue Saturday, as only an inch or so should be expected, but the blowing, drifting, and possible whiteout conditions are the greatest concern.  Wind chills will be dangerously cold, in the -30 to -40 range Saturday night into Sunday morning. 

By Sunday, winds will be quiet and the sun will shine with highs around 5.  Another round of snow is possible Monday.

In weather news

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Baby a sign of hope in devastated south

Associated Press Article

CASTALIAN SPRINGS, Tenn. (AP) — The muddy field was littered with debris after a wave of violent storms: Living room couches, strollers, children's toys. So when two rescuers came upon a baby, they thought he was a doll. Then he moved. "We grabbed hold of his neck (to take a pulse) and he took a breath of air and started crying," said David Harmon, a firefighter from a nearby county who was combing the field for tornado victims.  (read more)

Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Update

As of the latest update from the Associated Press (8:45pm February 6th, 2008), at least 54 people are dead after Tuesday's tornado outbreak.  This is the deadliest tornado outbreak since May 31, 1985 when 76 were killed in the United States, and 12 died in Ontario, Canada. 

The deadliest tornado outbreak in history was the Super Outbreak of April 3rd, 1974.

  Preliminary storm summary from the Storm Prediction Center.

2/6/08 Update

Local weather

A storm system that has been dropping heavy snow over northeast Iowa and northern Illinois will continue to pull away from the area tonight. Our skies will continue to clear out this evening and lows will by seasonably cold, down to about 9 by Thursday morning. There is a possibility of light snow Thursday, but don't expect any shoveling out of the deal.

We'll end the week on a relatively mild note, but an arctic blast is coming our way this weekend.  Highs Friday will near 30° with cloudy skies and light snow, but a very strong arctic front will push through early Saturday morning and drop temperatures below zero by Saturday afternoon.  With the drop in temperatures there will be strong, gusty winds and blowing snow.  From today's perspective, it appears that travel will be difficult Saturday, so keep an eye on the forecast if you're planning any travel across the region this coming weekend.  Sunday remains chilly, but highs will rebound to the 20s Monday and Tuesday and 30s on Wednesday.

In weather news

Severe weather may delay shuttle launch

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Wacky weather weariness

Deadly tornadoes strike southern U.S.

Southern tornadoes kill dozens

ATKINS, Ark. - Authorities went door-to-door early Wednesday searching for more victims of deadly tornadoes that ripped the roof off a shopping mall and blew apart warehouses as they tore across four states. The Associated Press reported at least 47 fatalities throughout the South.  (read more...)

Preliminary storm reports from February 5th

Super Tuesday Update

Local weather

Snow has been falling in parts of northeast Iowa, but we've been left with merely a few flakes here in southeast Minnesota. The storm system responsible for today's snow in the midwest and thunderstorms in the south-central U.S. will be moving off to the east and cooler air will be moving our way.  Lows tonight will drop to the upper teens, well above average, with a chance for a bit of light snow but only minor accumulations. 

High temperatures will remain in the low 20s Wednesday for a slightly cooler day than the last few, but highs jump back to the mid to upper 20s Thursday and Friday with a chance of light snow Thursday.  Only minor accumulations are expected with Thursday's snow.  Friday will be comfortably cool, close to 30, but another round of arctic air is set to arrive Friday night into Saturday morning.  Daytime temperatures Saturday will tumble with strong winds and afternoon temperatures close to zero.  Temperatures will rise back to nearly 20 by Monday with a chance of snow.

In weather news

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2/4/08 Update

Local weather...

Accumulating snow has ended for today and freezing drizzle remains possible through tonight.  Roads haven't been too bad around Rochester, but I've heard reports of slushy/icy roads in rural areas.  It will be turning icy again later tonight as temperatures dip back below the freezing mark, but overall, many area roads have been treated.  Another round of wintry weather will move through the Midwest Tuesday, but the bulk of the snow will remain to our south and east through southern Iowa into Illinois and eventually Michigan.

Around the country...

There is a relatively high risk (technically termed "moderate risk" by the Storm Prediction Center) of dangerous severe storms throughout the south-central U.S. Tuesday, especially during the late afternoon to nighttime hours.  Large, long-lived tornados will be possible from Arkansas to southern Indiana.  For the latest, check out the Storm Prediction Center website.

In weather news...

China battles coldest winter in 100 years

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Happy Groundhog Day!

The flea-bitten varmint affectionately known as "Punxsutawney Phil" apparently saw his shadow today despite an overcast sky, signaling another 6 weeks of winter.  Here's the official report.

The National Weather Service put together a great history of Groundhog Day.  Click here for the details.

Snow, sleet, and even rain/freezing rain are looking likely Monday.  It's still a tough storm to nail down, so there will be more details over the course of this weekend.  As of right now, I'm thinking we'll see light snow turning to rain Sunday night into Monday.  Occasional showers Monday, primarily sleet and freezing rain during the day then turning to snow Monday evening into Tuesday morning.  There will be a band of heavy snow setting up Monday evening into Tuesday morning, and currently that looks to be occurring over central Minnesota, just out of our viewing area. 

More to come on this evolving storm system...

In sky news...
U.S. plans for falling satellite
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2/1/08 Update

Local weather...

Comfortably cool winter weather continues this weekend, and there will be more clouds than sun this weekend yet highs will remain above average...in the upper 20s.  Light snow is possible Saturday, primarily during the morning hours, and only trace accumulations should be expected.  Sunday will be a cloudy day, but look for highs to near 30 both Sunday and Monday.

Of more concern and excitement is the potential for another round of winter weather next Monday.  There is a chance of accumulating snow Sunday night through Monday, and given warm air being drawn into the storm system there may be freezing rain and sleet as well.  Nailing down the track of this storm system is currently outside the reality of the given data, so we'll be keeping a close eye on snow potential over the next couple days.  Confidence in the potential of a good winter storm is just average at this time, so stay tuned to further updates through the weekend.

In weather news...

Tornado victim billed $2,000 for destroyed equipment

Snowstorms have killed 60, China says

January '08 in Rochester

Despite the thaw in the first couple weeks, January's temperatures averaged very close to the 30-year average, just 1.8 degrees above normal.  The warmest high for the month was 41 on the 28th, and the coldest low was -19 on the 24th.

Snowfall was 1.1" above average, with a grand total of 13.0".  Because some of our higher accumulations (5.5" on the 21st) occurred in very cold conditions--meaning it was a dry snow--January ended .27" behind the normal amount of liquid for the month.  In other words, there was lots of fluff with little substance to our snow.

There were 14 days with a temperature of 0 or below, which is right on the average of 13.2 days.

For meteorological winter (December-February), Rochester is 2.6" above normal in regards to snowfall, but is 4.6" below normal on the entire cold season...so far.

1/31/08 Update

In weather news...
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Local weather...
Our slow warm-up will continue into the weekend.  Keep in mind that by "warm-up", I mean "20s".  :)  Today is still colder than average for January 31st, with highs around 10, and Friday's highs will reach the low to mid 20s.  There may be some light snow Saturday, but nothing to write home about...only trace accumulations should be expected.

Highs around 30 are likely Sunday and Monday, and our active weather pattern continues with a shot of snow hitting the Midwest again late Sunday night through Monday morning.

Record Temperature Drop

Tuesday's cold front dropped temperatures in Rochester, MN from 40 degree at 12:01am Tuesday morning to -12 degrees by 11:13pm Tuesday evening. This makes the 52 degree drop in temperature the 6th greatest in recorded history and the biggest drop since 1940.  The greatest change in temperature in Rochester occurred on May 5th of 1909.  The high was 90, the low 32, for a change of 58 degrees.

La Crosse, WI tied their all-time record for temperature drop in one day with a 53 degree drop in temps; a high of 43 at 12:01am and a low of -10 at 11:43pm.

Thanks to the team at the La Crosse NWS office for digging up the data...

Winter Storm Information: Closings, Cancellations

Latest school closings?  click here

Latest cancellations/delays?  click here

Latest watches/warnings/advisories?  download Desktop Alert here

How do you calculate the wind chill?  click here

Difference between "old" wind chill and "new" wind chill?  click here

What's the greatest temperature change in one day for Rochester?  click here

Tuesday Evening Update 1/29

Skies are clearing, snow has ended, but the wind will stay strong tonight and wind chills will be as cold as 40 below and occasionally as low as 45 below zero.  Because of the bitter cold that will continue through Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Chill Warning due to the dangerously cold conditions. 

Also, blowing snow will make for lowered visibility and drifting across roadways through the course of tonight making for difficult travel.  Some area highways and sections of interstate remain closed until further notice, including Hwy 63 from cty 16 (Spring Valley) to the Iowa State border.  (source 511mn.org)

Stay warm, and if you've got to be outdoors tonight, make sure you're well covered as frost bite can occur in about 10 minutes.

Blizzard: It's Official!

If you've been out in it, you know how bad the weather's been this Tuesday.  Intense wind gusts, heavy snow, blowing and drifting snow, and wind chills as cold as -35°.

Blizzard criteria has officially been attained in Austin, Dodge Center, and Rochester.  In order to call a winter storm a "blizzard", there must be visibility less than 1/4 mile, regular wind gusts of 35mph or higher, and those conditions must last for 3 hours or more.  This happens less frequently than you might think, but has indeed been the case today.

Stay safe, stay warm!

-Randy

Monday Night Updated (1/28)

Despite temperatures throughout much of southeast Minnesota in the upper 30s, I've been getting a few reports of icing on roadways, especially around Rushford.

With the snowmelt of today and temperatures across the area continuing to fall, expect icy conditions throughout much of tonight and worsening travel through the course of Tuesday.

A strong cold front is still on track to blast through the region Tuesday bringing winds of 20 to 40mph, occasional snowfall, lowered visibilities, and dangerously cold wind chills of -20° to -35°.

Be sure to check in with Ted Schmidt on the NewsCenter Tuesday morning for the very latest on wintry conditions, cancellations, and winter storm headlines.

-Randy

1/28/08 Update

Local outlook...

Our mild weekend and Monday has led many to the carwash, and today was definitely the day to get 2 months worth of sand and salt off your car.  There are big changes in store for our Tuesday, and I've been trying to drill that point home so far today.

Looking upstream to the Dakotas, Montana, and Saskatchewan, temperatures have plummeted with the passage of a strong arctic cold front today, dropping nearly 50 degrees from one side of the front to the other.  Winds are increasing behind the front to 30-35mph, and there has been some snow.  By the time this cold front arrives on our doorstep, about 6am Tuesday morning, this storm and attending cold front will be a bit stronger.

The warmest part of our day Tuesday will be first thing in the morning, and temperatures will drop quickly during the morning hours.  By the afternoon, temperatures will be below zero.  To go along with the cold air, we will likely receive snowfall in the neighborhood of 2-4", possibly more for some, along with intense northwesterly winds.  What this means for the traveler is very difficult road conditions by the late morning hours and especially into the afternoon/evening.  Visibilities will be very low due to blowing snow, and roads will be icy due to all the snowmelt tonight into Tuesday morning re-freezing quickly during the AM.

Winds will relax Tuesday night, and Wednesday's highs will be in the single digits above zero with partly sunny skies.  Our weekend is looking to be "normal" with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 20s.

Be safe out there Tuesday, especially as conditions deteriorate into the afternoon hours.

-Randy

In weather news...

China storms strand 50,000

California storm cuts off power, roads

'Tis the season...

for ice halos!

This beautiful picture of sundogs (parhelia) and a halo around the sun was sent in by Denys Ackerman, Jr of Rochester.

1/27/08 Update

Weather in the news...

Southern California sees more rain, flooding

Wind storm rips through Europe

Our weather...

Temperatures have been well above average, but still shy of record territory this weekend, making for very pleasant January weather.  With southerly winds, lows tonight will stay close to 30 degrees, which is nearly 10 degrees above the average high for this time of the year.  Monday will be another mild day with highs close to 40, but clouds will be on the increase and a few light rain showers are possible Monday.  You'll want to have plenty of windshield washer fluid between slushy roads and the rain. 

A strong storm system will push through Monday night ushering in much colder air Tuesday.  Tuesday's forecast highs are a bit deceiving considering they will be early in the day.  Temperatures will fall Tuesday with strong northwesterly winds and wind chills in the -20 to -25 range.  Snow is also possible Tuesday, followed by bitter cold Wednesday with highs close to 10.

An active weather pattern will continue through the week with snow possible Thursday and Saturday.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

-Randy

1/25/08 Update

Snowfall totals weren't terribly impressive, but impacts of the snow were significant on area roadways as most of the snow fell within a short period of time.

Rochester received between 1.5" (airport) to 1.8" (downtown), while Oronoco tallied 2.7" and Lake City received 2.8" this afternoon.

What to expect this weekend...

Temperatures will continue to warmup this weekend with highs in the mid 20s Saturday and into the mid 30s Sunday.  Saturday will begin cloudy with clouds thinning out by the afternoon and winds remaining light Saturday.  Sunday will be a bit windier, but with sunny skies, highs return to the mid 30s.  This weekend will certainly lend itself to enjoying the fresh snow with milder conditions.

Cold air will return Monday night as a cold front pushes through our area, setting off rain Monday and bringing a change-over to snow early Tuesday with strong winds and dropping temperatures.  Highs will be back in the teens next week...from Tuesday through Friday.

It's Over

The January Thaw of 2008, that is...

Had January come to an end this past Sunday, it would have gone down as the 6th warmest January on record, but fortunately, that's not going to be the case.

We can expect below normal temperatures through at least the middle of next week--but likely through the end of the month--along with a good chance of snow Wednesday night through Thursday.  Winter's back, in case you were wondering.  :)

The Rarity of January Tornadoes

It would seem fairly obvious that tornadoes, in Wisconsin, in January, are not something that would be considered "normal".  To get some insite on the actual statistics of January tornadoes, and the outbreak that occurred on Monday, January 7th 2008, I sent an inquiry to a friend who works at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.  Here's what he had to say...

The tornado outbreak on January 7, 2008 was very rare. The United States averages about 4 to 5 tornado