On the edge of severe

As expected, we still haven't picked up any rainfall around southern Minnesota or northern Iowa quite yet, but conditions are beginning to turn more optimal for heavy rain and thunderstorms beginning tonight. SPC has already issued a tornado watch for portions of northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota for the rest of today, and thunderstorms will begin to increase across the region into this evening.

The heavy rain threat for the next 24 hours doesn't appear to be enough to prompt any flood watches in our area, but that could change depending on how the overall storm system evolves. The way I'm seeing this storm right now, the best flow of moisture will begin to shift to our east Friday afternoon. This isn't to say that we won't get heavy rain, but we should be left out of the "heaviest" rainfall by the end of tomorrow. You can click on the image on the right to see a model estimation of rainfall amounts expected. Computer models are projecting amounts from 1.5" to nearly 2" by Saturday morning throughout southern Minnesota and north Iowa, with Minnesota receiving the higher totals. The image on the left is the region where the most severe weather is expected to occur.

Either way you cut it, we're looking at yet another wet finish to our week. Rain will linger into Saturday morning, and temperatures to kick off the weekend will remain below average. There will be milder days throughout the coming 7 days, and another round of thunderstorms is probable from Tuesday, May 6th into Wednesday, May 7th.